Will another team have anything for McLaren in Saudi Arabia?

Formula 1 concludes its first tripleheader of the season on Sunday in the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix (1 p.m. ET, ESPN2) and it’ll be a surprise if either McLaren’s Oscar Piastri or Lando Norris isn’t in victory lane. The 2024 constructor’s champion has been dominant so far this season, and the long straights at the Jeddah Corniche circuit should suit the McLaren incredibly well.

Advertisement

Piastri got his second win of the season in Bahrain a week ago and is the favorite to win the race at +130 at BetMGM. Norris is right behind at +150. And there’s a big gap to everyone else.

Max Verstappen is the No. 3 favorite but he’s at +700. Verstappen won the first race of the tripleheader in Suzuka. But that was because Red Bull got the setup right and Verstappen put in a magical qualifying lap to get the pole. Don’t get us wrong, he ran a fantastic race too. But the Suzuka track is not conducive for passing. The race was a Monaco-like procession and track position was everything.

There should be more passing in Saudi Arabia given the two long DRS zones on the street circuit. Drivers will have ample opportunity to get a big tow on either the front or back straights and make passes. But those flat-out sections could also put the McLarens in their own zip code.

McLaren has shown fantastic straight-line speed since the 2024 season. That’s reflected in the qualifying odds. The odds of either Norris or Piastri getting the pole are -400. Mercedes is the No. 2 favorite at +500 with its drivers George Russell and Kimi Antonelli with Red Bull at +575.

Advertisement

Ferrari may not be a bad bet there at +800. Lewis Hamilton is still learning his new car, but Charles Leclerc is more than capable of posting a fast lap. He qualified second in Bahrain.

A McLaren win will also likely extend the team’s lead in the 2025 constructor’s standings. Yes, it’s still very early in the season. But McLaren is threatening to run away with the title. The team has a 59-point lead over Mercedes and has more than double the points of any other team in the field. McLaren won the 2024 title by just 14 points over Ferrari and was ahead of third-place Red Bull by 77 points. It’s not inconceivable that the gap over everyone else could be 77 points or more with a 1-2 finish in Saudi Arabia.

If that happens, the focus will shift to the title fight between the two papaya drivers. Norris leads Piastri by just three points in the driver standings as Piastri is making a strong case to be considered the team’s lead driver. While Verstappen and Russell are both within striking distance of the two McLaren drivers, it’s hard to see how either can make a credible title challenge without upgrades to either car or a downturn in McLaren performance.