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André Snellings
Entering last season, A’ja Wilson battled with Breanna Stewart to be the top overall pick in fantasy women’s basketball drafts. Wilson responded with an utterly dominant 2024 campaign in which she averaged a whopping 50.3 FP/G, almost 10 fantasy points more than the second-highest average in the league (Napheesa Collier, 41.1 FP/G). Fresh off a scorching rookie season, Caitlin Clark shapes up as Wilson’s main competition for that top spot this year.
Only five players averaged 39.5 FP/G or better last season: Wilson (50.3 FP/G), Collier (41.1 FP/G), Clark (40.4 FP/G), Arike Ogunbowale (39.7 FP/G) and Stewart (39.6 FP/G). No other player that played at least half their games averaged more than 34.5 FP/G, leaving a clear delineation between the top five and the rest of the league.
Ogunbowale and Collier are both veteran players that set their career-bests in fantasy scoring last season, which makes it unlikely they could close the large production gap with Wilson this season. Stewart averaged a career-high 44.4 FP/G in 2023, her first season with the Liberty, so there is some possibility she could bounce back to that level in 2025. But with Stewart preparing for her ninth season while coming off knee surgery, the likelihood is that Wilson would still be the better fantasy draft prospect this season.
Then, there is Clark.
She was the only rookie ranked in the top-5 in fantasy points per game and accomplished those numbers despite having a relatively slow start to the season as she acclimated to the pro game. But she caught fire after the All-Star and Olympic break, averaging 21.9 PPG, 9.8 APG and 5.6 RPG in the last 22 games of the regular season, good for 44.3 FP/G. With that as a springboard to her sophomore campaign, there is a very realistic chance that she could maintain those numbers for the season, perhaps even improve on them a bit.
So the question really becomes, how likely is Wilson to replicate her production from last season? Because if she averages near 50 FP/G or above again, she is exceedingly likely to lead the league again.
Last season, Wilson set new career-highs in scoring (26.9 PPG), rebounds (11.9 RPG) and blocks (2.6 BPG). At 28 years old, Wilson is still in the prime of her career so there isn’t a reason to expect regression on that front. However, her scoring spike correlated with Candace Parker’s retirement and Chelsea Gray battling injuries most of the season. She scored more because the team needed her to. But with Gray back at full speed and Jewel Loyd taking the place of Kelsey Plum, Wilson might not put up the same scoring numbers this year.
On the other hand, Wilson remains the Aces primary interior presence on both offense and defense. And while Gray and Loyd might eat slightly into her shot volume, they also should open space for Wilson to increase her shot efficiency. In 2023, Gray’s last healthy season, Wilson shot a career-best 55.7% from the field, compared to 51.7% last season. In addition, playing more often as the primary big in an otherwise small-ball lineup is exactly what led to Wilson’s career year in blocks and boards, so she has the potential to even improve on those this season.
While Wilson is projected to slightly regress across the board, she would generate 45.8 FP/G, the highest projected mark in the league by almost five FP over Clark’s projected 41.2 FP/G and Stewart’s 40.9 FP/G. While there is logical reason to believe these projections could shift a bit in either direction, the odds are that Wilson still maintains a reasonable gap between her production and everyone else. And thus, she should maintain her well-deserved designation as the top pick in fantasy women’s basketball this season.
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