MLB Daily Special — Highest Score Team, 6/4 originally appeared on Athlon Sports.

START TIME 6:40pm EST

Pittsburgh hosts Houston tonight as just a (+110) underdog — but my MLBMA model's got the Astros lighting up the scoreboard….

The Pirates' 25-year-old RHP Mike Burrows climbs the hill tonight, attempting to get on track and potentially keep his spot in the rotation. After a really strong start to the season down in AAA (32.1 IP, 2.51 ERA, 1.05 WHIP), Burrows earned a promotion to the big club, where unfortunately it's been an abject disaster since.

In two 2025 MLB starts, Burrows' been beat up pretty bad. He's surrendered eight runs in just 8.1 IP, due to a litany of issues. A lack of general command/control (10.4% BB, 25.2% CSW) forces Burrows into the zone with a well below-average 93 mph four-seamer (82 Stuff+) that's gotten obliterated (.589 xwOBA, 3 HR). However, credit where it's due — the changeup's legitimately devastating (31% Use/.672 xSLG/40% Whiff). That said, one pitch does not an arsenal make, and Burrows may need more seasoning in MiLB.

I'm especially concerned with the poor splits to RHH (.333 BA, 1.207 OPS, 2.7 HR/9) because the Astros remain one of the best right-hand hitting teams in MLB, especially as of late. Over the last two weeks, the entire top of the order (Yainer Diaz, Christian Walker, Jeremy Peña, and Jose Altuve) have all posted a +.350 xwOBA, combining for ten home runs. 

Also, having not thrown more than 78 pitches yet this season, Burrows will likely be handing the ball over to a Pirate bullpen with the third most losses (14) in 2025. Remember, playing on the road, we're guaranteed nine frames agaisnt weak pitching.

DAILY SPECIAL MINDSET:

Remember to bet small and be very patient in these longshot markets. We can miss every day for the next ten days, hit once and wind up profitable. So please, be extremely responsible (0.10u for example) and good luck!

Who's tailing HOUSTON ASTROS HIGHEST SCORING TEAM (+1600) on Draftkings

This story was originally reported by Athlon Sports on Jun 4, 2025, where it first appeared.

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