Despite McLaren having clearly had the fastest car during the first four (and a half) rounds of the 2025 F1 season, a Red Bull strategic gamble in Saudi Arabian Grand Prix qualifying has helped provide Max Verstappen with the chance to seize the world championship lead.

McLaren’s dominant form during practice in Jeddah had left most predicting a front-row lockout by Lando Norris and Oscar Piastri for the reigning constructors’ champions, but the Saturday night session ultimately delivered extreme drama.

World championship leader Norris crashed on his first flying lap in Q3 to leave himself 10th on the grid, and with little hope of retaining his lead over Piastri and Verstappen at the top of the standings.

The incident also left little more than eight minutes on the clock in Q3, which was just about enough time for the remaining drivers to attempt two flying laps if they wanted to.

The option only really made sense for Verstappen and Mercedes’ George Russell, who were the only drivers still in possession of two sets of fresh soft tyres at this stage of qualifying.

Piastri had completed his first flying lap just before Norris crashed, both sealing a banker time and using up the first of his two remaining new sets of soft tyres.

Red Bull seized the moment, with Verstappen’s engineer Gianpiero Lambiase sending the Dutchman out for a first run in which he took provisional pole, putting the pressure back on his rivals.

Russell, then Piastri would momentarily take top spot, before Verstappen – after a smoothly executed pit stop to put on his fresh tyres – grabbed pole from the Australian by just a hundredth of a second.

That Verstappen was able to take provisional pole with his first run was made even more impressive by the fact he did it with enough fuel on board for both efforts.

Verstappen praises strategy call as Horner reveals tight margin

Verstappen said: “With the crash, the only thing it meant was that you had to change your approach. I wasn’t entirely sure what to do.

“At the end of the day, GP (Lambiase) said let’s fuel it for two laps. So you do the first lap on the used out-lap tyre, then pit and go onto the new. You carry more fuel, so you’re a bit slower on the first time.

“But it was the right call. It was definitely the right thing to do for me in terms of feeling with the car and building up to the limit.”

Red Bull team principal Christian Horner explained how the strategy left the Milton Keynes squad with just 25 seconds of margin for Verstappen to complete his two runs, but also insisted that the highest praise was due to his driver for nailing another qualifying lap.

Horner said: “It left it right on the cusp of doing two times, for which there was 25 seconds of margin, or do you just hang in there and do one?

“We elected to do the two times, which puts you under pressure because if there’s any issue at all, you’ve lost that margin.

“What was super impressive for me was that, because you take the pit stop, you’ve got to carry the fuel.

“So, he had six or seven kilograms more fuel on that first lap, which he went quickest, put the pressure then on the other guys. And then again, his last lap was outstanding.”

Did Mercedes miss a trick?

Russell was in an almost identical situation to Verstappen following Norris’ crash, but Mercedes opted to wait for just one run in the closing moments.

The Brit said the option of doing two runs was discussed, and that the decision not to go for it ultimately left him needing to be more conservative with his one attempt.

“It was discussed more to actually start on the new and put the used on after,” Russell said.

“I’m sure it was discussed on the pit wall. I’m not privy to every single conversation because I’m just driving the car at that point, and I put my trust in the team. But it’s something we’ll discuss afterwards.

“As a driver, just knowing you’ve only got that one lap… especially on a track like this, you’ve got to be full commitment.

“Turn 1… you’re pushing the tyres to be as cold as possible, and I didn’t have the confidence to push them any cooler. I lost a bit of lap time with my tyres being a bit too hot, because I was just being a little bit too conservative with them.”

As for Piastri, he revealed that McLaren also considered attempting to squeeze in an extra run but came to the logical conclusion that the risk outweighed reward.

Piastri said: “We spoke about it, yes, but decided against it. Considering I had a lap on the board, I didn’t need to put another one on.

“It was going to be extremely tight. As Max said, he had to fuel for the whole run. That first lap on used tyres with a bit more fuel, you’re weighing up how much you’re learning versus how much it puts you off.

“When you don’t have a lap on the board, it’s a very different scenario. For us with a lap on the board, we had done three or four new sets in a row. We decided to go for that single lap at the end, and I think, for us, it was the right decision.”

Piastri confident, Verstappen cautious over race pace

It all means if Verstappen can remarkably win on Sunday, he will become the championship leader unless Norris finishes second.

Verstappen is just eight points behind Norris, with Piastri three points adrift of his McLaren team-mate in the title race.

But, Piastri will start the race as favourite. McLaren’s advantage over the rest of the field has been bigger in race trim as they suffer from less tyre degradation, particularly in hot conditions.

The key for Piastri will be to at least keep second place at the start, then McLaren will have the opportunity to undercut or overcut Verstappen in what is expected to be a one-stop race, in the uncertain event that there are no Safety Cars.

“I think we’ve got good pace. I think the Red Bull and Max look more competitive here than they did certainly last week [in Bahrain],” said Piastri.

“Suzuka is not a completely different layout to somewhere like here with a lot of high-speed corners, so it kind of makes sense to me at least that they’re a bit more competitive, and we’ll see if that translates to the race.

“I’m feeling confident in what we’ve got. There’s a lot of DRS zones around here, which is a nice difference to Suzuka.”

Piastri brings up Suzuka because Verstappen led from start to finish in Japan after springing a similar qualifying surprise, but that track is notoriously difficult to overtake at compared to the Jeddah Corniche Circuit.

McLaren have said they will be “more attacking” after Verstappen won in Japan, so Sunday’s race will be the first key test of that theory.

Verstappen, who is a two-time winner in Jeddah, is unsure if he will have the pace to keep Piastri behind.

“Up until now, [I’m] not very confident, to be honest,” he said. “My long runs weren’t particularly great compared to Oscar or Lando. I’m going to give it everything I have, for sure.

“Does it mean that I have enough? I don’t know. But the car definitely took a bit of a step forward compared to what we were testing yesterday.

“So, I hope that will help our tyre life out as well, but difficult to say that gives an opportunity to fight. But, like I said, I’m going to give it a go.”

Could Russell claim first 2025 win?

Russell cannot be discounted from the fight as he looks to continue his superb start to the season, sitting only 14 points behind Norris in the standings.

From third on the grid, Russell will likely need to get ahead of Piastri on the opening lap to give himself a chance of a shock Mercedes win.

“I think it depends on Turn 1, to be honest. Max and I were just talking now. We both recognise McLaren are the standout favourites and definitely have the pace on everybody else,” said Russell.

“If Oscar gets into the lead, you’ll probably see a repeat of Bahrain. If we stay in the order we qualified, I think it could be a tight race until the pit stops.

“The medium tyre this year was last year’s soft, which only one driver used in the whole race. We saw the tyres were too hard in Japan. We’ve all pushed to have softer tyres.

“Hopefully, it won’t make it a slam-dunk one-stop, and there could be a couple of different strategies on the table.”

‘Anything could happen but McLaren will be disappointed’

While McLaren put on a brave face after qualifying, the possibility of Verstappen leading the world championship after five rounds that McLaren have had the potential to dominate will have alarm bells ringing within the Woking squad, according to Sky Sports F1’s Bernie Collins.

“They do have a very strong race car, but a bit like Japan, not that long ago, this weekend was largely about putting it on the front row today.

“Oscar has achieved that but he will feel a little bit downbeat that it’s not P1. And there’s questions to be asked about getting everything out of the car today.

“When you have the fastest car, and we believe that they do, it is about converting everything when the chance is there.

“Here, anything could happen in the race, so you’ve got to be ready to take the opportunities, of course. (McLaren Racing chief executive) Zak Brown was selling it well, but I think they’ll be a little bit disappointed.”

Sky Sports F1’s Saudi Arabian GP Schedule

Sunday April 20

• 1pm: F1 Academy Race 2
• 2.20pm: F2 Feature Race
• 4.30pm: Saudi Arabian GP build-up: Grand Prix Sunday
• 6pm: THE SAUDI ARABIAN GRAND PRIX*
• 8pm: Saudi Arabian GP reaction: Chequered flag

*Also live on Sky Sports Main Event

Formula 1 completes its first triple-header of 2025 in Jeddah with the Saudi Arabian Grand Prix this weekend, live on Sky Sports F1. Stream Sky Sports with NOW – No contract, cancel anytime