Sixteen days left in the WNBA regular season. Two playoff berths secured. Three teams eliminated. The 2025 WNBA playoff picture is taking shape.

The top teams in the league — the Minnesota Lynx, Atlanta Dream, Las Vegas Aces, Phoenix Mercury and New York Liberty — are fighting for playoff seeding and home-court advantage. But elsewhere in the WNBA standings, five teams, all within four games of each other, are realistically vying for the final three spots.

If the playoffs started Tuesday, the Seattle Storm (10.5 games behind the league-leading Lynx), Golden State Valkyries (11) and Indiana Fever (11) would be the sixth through eighth seeds in the playoffs, with the Los Angeles Sparks (12) and Washington Mystics (14.5) narrowly missing the cut.

ESPN breaks down what you need to know about each of these playoff hopefuls and their remaining path to clinching a spot in the postseason.

Chance to make the playoffs: 95.1% (per ESPN’s WNBA BPI)

Playoff outlook: Seattle has largely been defined by its inconsistencies this season, and a six-game losing streak to start August — a stretch in which each game was decided by 10 points or fewer and the team fell below .500 — put the Storm in danger of falling out of the playoff picture. But the team has recovered with four wins in its past five games, including its victory over Washington punctuated by Nneka Ogwumike’s buzzer beater.

At No. 6 in the standings, the Storm might look safe for now. But they will want to avoid dropping further and landing a matchup against the likes of the Lynx or red-hot Aces to have a better chance to win their first playoff series since 2022. The Storm have notably been better on the road (12-8) than at home (8-10), a trend they’ll look to buck when they close the season with four consecutive contests at Climate Pledge Arena.

Pivotal player: Dominique Malonga has been a bright spot in Seattle’s up-and-down season. The 19-year-old has emerged as an indispensable part of the Storm’s rotation in recent weeks, with three 20-point performances and three double-doubles in August. Malonga might have one of the highest ceilings of anyone in the league.

Remaining games (6): @ IND (Aug. 26), @ MIN (Aug. 28), vs. CHI (Aug. 30), vs. LA (Sept. 1), vs. NY (Sept. 5), vs. GS (Sept. 9)

Series records: 1-2 vs. GS; 0-2 vs. IND; 1-2 vs. LA; 1-2 vs. WAS

Chance to make the playoffs: 88.2%

Playoff outlook: With Caitlin Clark limited to 13 games and three other guards now out for the season, injuries have lowered the Fever’s ceiling as they seek consecutive playoff appearances for the first time since 2015-16. The team has prided itself on its resolve in the face of adversity but has won only two games (vs. Chicago and Connecticut in overtime) since Aug. 5 — begging the question of whether the Fever might be reaching a breaking point.

New additions Odyssey Sims, Shey Peddy and Aerial Powers can’t entirely make up for the losses of Aari McDonald, Sydney Colson and Sophie Cunningham (and continued absence of Clark), but they bring veteran experience that could be valuable in these sorts of high-stakes situations.

Not helping matters: Indiana’s upcoming schedule isn’t very forgiving, with nearly all of the Fever’s remaining games against teams that are fighting for either a postseason berth or seeding.

Pivotal player: Clark hasn’t played since July 15 but participated in shootaround Sunday morning, her first time working out with the team in some capacity during her extended absence. How quickly will Indiana be able to get her back into the mix, and how will she look once she’s back on the floor? And might a continued slide in the standings mean her return ends up being too little, too late?

Remaining games (7): vs. SEA (Aug. 26), @ LA (Aug. 29), @ GS (Aug. 31), @ PHX (Sept. 2), vs. CHI (Sept. 5), @ WAS (Sept. 7), vs. MIN (Sept. 9)

Series records: 2-0 vs. SEA; 0-2 vs. GS; 0-3 vs. LA; 1-2 vs. WAS

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What does road ahead for Fever look like without Caitlin Clark?

Ari Chamber joins “SportsCenter” to discuss the Indiana Fever’s path to the playoffs while Caitlin Clark remains out with injury.

Chance to make the playoffs: 76.8%

Playoff outlook: The Valkyries have far surpassed preseason expectations, already setting a WNBA record for the most wins by an expansion team in their inaugural season when they notched No. 18 earlier this month. Now they’re within reach of becoming the first WNBA expansion franchise to make the playoffs in its debut season. All the more remarkable is that the Valkyries have managed to stay afloat while dealing with a host of injuries, particularly after losing All-Star Kayla Thornton (knee) for the rest of the year.

Golden State has led the league in attendance this summer and will look to capitalize on its home-court advantage when it hosts five straight contests over the next two weeks before ending the regular season on the road.

Pivotal player: Veronica Burton has been a revelation for the Valkyries, emerging as a leading candidate for WNBA Most Improved Player after more limited roles in previous stops in Dallas and Connecticut. She leads active Golden State players in scoring, assists and steals, tasked with even more after Thornton went down with her injury. But she has shined with at least 24 points in three of the past six games and a 24-point, 14-assist, zero-turnover performance last week. She’ll have to continue her stellar two-way play, especially her productivity on the offensive end, for the Valkyries to make more history in the coming weeks.

Remaining games (7): vs. WAS (Aug. 30), vs. IND (Aug. 31), vs. NY (Sept. 2), vs. DAL (Sept. 4), vs. MIN (Sept. 6), @ SEA (Sept. 9), @ MIN (Sept. 11)

Series records: 2-1 vs. SEA; 2-0 vs. IND; 3-1 vs. LA; 3-0 vs. WAS

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Valkyries defeat Wings to snap 3-game skid

Veronica Burton scores 25 points to lead the Valkyries past Paige Bueckers and the Dallas Wings 90-81.

Chance to make the playoffs: 39.3%

Playoff outlook: The new-look Sparks have been clear about their goal all year: make the playoffs. Not only has Los Angeles missed the postseason each year since 2020, but after trading away its No. 2 pick for Kelsey Plum, returning to the playoffs in 2025 became even more paramount. L.A. picked up steam around the All-Star break, winning eight of nine games in one stretch. But since then, the Sparks have alternated wins and losses, preventing them from achieving a better position in the standings.

Of all the teams left jockeying for the final few playoff berths, the Sparks have the most games remaining (nine), including six in the final 11 days of the regular season. And to stay in the hunt, they’ll have to do what Kelsey Plum commanded of them in the moments following their thrilling win over Dallas last week: “Play some f—ing defense.”

Pivotal player: Five or six players can reach double figures in the Sparks’ high-octane offense, but Rickea Jackson has been particularly crucial in this recent surge for Los Angeles. Leading up to the Sparks’ hot streak in mid-July, she averaged 12.1 points per game. That’s up to 17.3 PPG in the 15 games since. The Sparks’ best bet of going on a run hinges on them piling on the scoring against their opponents, and Jackson plays a huge role there.

Remaining games (9): vs. PHX (Aug. 26), vs. IND (Aug. 29), vs. WAS (Aug. 31), @ SEA (Sept. 1), @ ATL (Sept. 3), @ ATL (Sept. 5), vs. DAL (Sept. 7), @ PHX (Sept. 9), vs. LV (Sept. 11)

Series records: 2-1 vs. SEA; 1-3 vs. GS; 3-0 vs. IND; 2-1 vs. WAS

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Paige Bueckers’ historic game spoiled by Kelsey Plum’s winning bucket

Paige Bueckers drops 44 points, but the Sparks prevail over the Wings thanks to Kelsey Plum’s game-winning bucket.

Chance to make the playoffs: 0.6%

Playoff outlook: The Mystics are one of the pleasant surprises of the WNBA season behind the rookie All-Star tandem of Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen. But after sending Brittney Sykes to Seattle before the trade deadline, it appears they’ll miss the playoffs. They’ve dropped in the standings after losing nine of their past 12 (including four straight) and are sitting 3.5 games out of eighth place with just six games remaining. But in Year 2 of its rebuild, Washington might be content with missing the postseason and landing back in the lottery.

Pivotal players: Citron and Iriafen are the go-to players in D.C., but Shakira Austin is another increasingly important top option, shining recently with a 30-point (on 67% shooting), 5-rebound, 4-block game. The Mystics will need those three firing on all cylinders if they want to make a late playoff push and pass the likes of Indiana and L.A. in the standings.

Remaining games (6): @ NY (Aug. 28), @ GS (Aug. 30), @ LA (Aug. 31), vs. PHX (Sept. 4), vs. IND (Sept. 7), @ NY (Sept. 9)

Series records: 2-1 vs. SEA; 0-3 vs. GS; 2-1 vs. IND; 1-2 vs. LA