Welcome to the first edition of my weekly look at the college football futures market, where we zoom out from the box scores and dive into what’s moving and why it matters.

Each week, I’ll break down the biggest storylines shaping the Heisman race, the shifting playoff picture, and where I see betting value before the market adjusts.

Futures are tricky because they are equal parts projection and timing, where reading the momentum is as important as reading the numbers.

Sometimes the best move is holding chalk. Sometimes it’s finding the overlooked value buried under an overreaction. Either way, the goal is the same: to stay one step ahead of the market before it catches up.

Heisman Trophy favorites

Arch Manning, QB, Texas (+650)

He makes perfect sense on paper. Texas has the weapons, the protection and the national stage to keep him in the spotlight every single week. Manning is stepping in as the starer for a program that is already loaded with talent, and if he plays clean and efficient, the hype machine does the rest. The problem is that preseason buzz can also be a trap. He is unproven over a full season, and Heisman voters usually want wow moments, not just solid quarterbacking. If he looks more like a distributor than a star, the odds are inflated. Reminder: Only one preseason Heisman favorite has won the trophy in the past 16 years (Marcus Mariota in 2014). Feels a little rich for the risk.

Cade Klubnik, QB, Clemson (+900)

This is the most tempting entering Week 1 because everything around him lines up. It’s Year 3 as a starter, he has one of the deepest receiver rooms in the country and a schedule that gives him plenty of prime-time chances without too many roadblocks. If Clemson wins big and he posts steady numbers, voters will take notice. The concern is whether his ceiling is truly Heisman level. He has been efficient, but not electric (10th in passing yards last season), and the award often goes to the guy who puts up video-game stats or has that signature “wow” moment. Klubnik might lead Clemson to the College Football Playoff, but that alone might not be enough.

Garrett Nussmeier, QB, LSU (+900)

This is the classic case of opportunity meeting uncertainty. LSU will throw it a ton, and Brian Kelly has never been shy about letting his quarterback light it up. The question is who steps up as Nussmeier’s go-to target. Nussmeier has the arm talent and confidence to put up Heisman-caliber numbers if LSU stays in the SEC hunt, but he’s also turnover-prone (eight interceptions in a five-week span last season) and hasn’t proven he can string together 12 consistent games. He already showed he can pile up stats, with more than 4,000 yards passing last season, but now the expectations are higher. Can Nussmeier be the guy who pushes LSU past nine wins and into the national conversation?

National championship favorites

Ohio State (+550)

Can the Buckeyes repeat as national champs? They could. The Buckeyes just hoisted the trophy, and that kind of momentum, not to mention the winning culture, carries serious weight. They’ve still got marquee names like Jeremiah Smith and are rolling with a proven coaching staff under Ryan Day. But let’s be real: they lost a heap of talent, including coordinators and key players, and they’re breaking in a new QB. Betting on repeat glory is tempting, but depth and inexperience are real questions here.

Texas (+550)

Asking Texas to cut that 20-year drought totally gets you excited. You’ve got Manning running the show, a high-flying offense, a defense anchored by Anthony Hill Jr. and Colin Simmons and a coaching staff that’s built consistency with back-to-back CFP appearances. Texas is preseason No. 1 and the favorites to win both the SEC and the national title. But let’s pump the brakes a little. Preseason vibes don’t win championships. The Longhorns lost key staffers, Georgia is still a threat, and if they have any misstep, Texas is toast.

Penn State (+650)

Now that would be a story. The Nittany Lions have everything clicking: Drew Allar back under center, a backfield duo in Nicholas Singleton and Kaytron Allen that’s downright scary, and that line is one of the best in the country. Add in Jim Knowles, the highest-paid DC in the sport, and they finally have the defensive mastermind to match expectations. The catch is that pressure is intense, and James Franklin’s “big‑game” record is still shaky (4-19 against top-10 teams), and the defense is brand new under a new system. Penn State is tempting, but this ride has some sharp turns.

Another bet to consider

Kansas State to win Big 12 (+1000)

K-State’s drop from +450 to +1000 to win the Big 12 after losing to Iowa State in Dublin feels like an overreaction. K-State outgained Iowa State 383-313, had more explosive plays and still had a chance to win late.

Weather was a factor, the field was sloppy and a handful of high-leverage plays swung the result. Iowa State went 3-for-3 on fourth down, K-State went 1-for-4; that’s the difference in a three-point game.

The schedule still sets up fine. The Wildcats get UCF, TCU, Texas Tech and Colorado in Manhattan. The road games at Baylor, Oklahoma State and particularly Utah aren’t freebies, but this is the most wide-open Big 12 we’ve had, as there isn’t a single team you’d call untouchable.

Avery Johnson still showed flashes, Jayce Brown stretched the field and Jerand Bradley ripped a 65-yard score. The playmaking is there. Clean up execution and the Wildcats are absolutely still in the race.

The jump from +450 to +1000 in Week 0 is the market cutting their implied odds in half off of one sloppy, weather-heavy game. That’s a buy-low spot for me.