Tallahassee hosts another key ACC vs. SEC matchup in Week 1. Florida State will welcome Alabama to town, a game where the Crimson Tide is favored. Predictions usually side with them as well — including Josh Pate, who sees a double-digit victory for Kalen DeBoer after maybe a slower start.

“I’m taking Alabama to win, I’m taking Alabama to cover,” Pate said via Josh Pate’s College Football Show. “I think they win the thing by 16, 17-plus. But I don’t know that’s how the game starts.”

But when breaking down the game, Pate outlined how Florida State might be able to pull off an upset. He flashed back to Alabama’s loss to Vanderbilt last season, one where Diego Pavia became a household name across college football. His play absolutely tormented Kane Wommack‘s defense and in big situations as well.

Florida State is debuting quarterback Thomas Castellanos and offensive coordinator Gus Malzahn on Saturday. It’s a duo head coach Mike Norvell is going to rely on all season, not just on Saturday against Alabama. The Seminoles need to bounce back in a big way after finishing last year with a 2-10 record.

You do not have to remind Alabama fans of what Malzahn is capable of, going back to his days at Auburn. Pate believes there is a world where Malzahn follows the Vanderbilt model to pull off an upset.

“Quarterback runs kill Bama,” Pate said. “Quarterback scrambles on broken plays kill Bama. Just the mobile quarterback problem, in general, continue to bite them. The option game is lethal. Third down is a nightmare. Do you remember that Vandy game last year? Vandy was 12 of 18 on third down… The way this goes sideways is Malzahn puts you into a blender first half… and it’s 20-17 at halftime. And then the second half continues to play to script.”

Ultimately, Pate is still taking Alabama to win and cover. Malzahn might be able to stick to the script throughout the first half, maybe into parts of the third quarter. Pate seems to think there will be some separation at the end, making the score a little more comfortable than how things played out.

A 3:30 p.m. ET kickoff is scheduled on ESPN. There is rain in the forecast, potentially adding to the theatrics on Saturday afternoon. Either way, a fun one between two of college football’s top brands should be on deck.