The Italian footwear industry reported another period of declines, according to the latest data from Confindustria Moda Research Centre for Assocalzaturifici, the national association representing Italian shoemakers.

The trade organization noted that the situation “remains complex” for the Italian footwear sector in the first half of the year, but the second quarter showed a “weakening of the downturn” across main economic indicators.

Giovanna Ceolini, president of Assocalzaturifici, said in a statement on Friday ahead of this weekend’s MICAM footwear tradeshow in Milan, that the data analysis shows a decline in the January to June cumulative figures. These drops were seen both in sales, down 5.6 percent among member companies participating in the quarterly survey, and in industrial production, down 9.5 percent.

During the first five months of 2025 shoe exports from Italy amounted to 4.89 billion euros, a decline of 2.7 percent over the same time last year. In the period, the country exported 84.5 million pairs, which is up 3.2 percent, or 2.6 million more than in the same period of 2024, with an average price per pair falling to 57.82 euros, a drop of 5.7 percent.

Assocalzaturifici noted that the negative economic conditions that began in the second half of 2023, at the end of the post-Covid rebound, have impacted all product categories, including luxury and designer labels.

As for how exports are performing by region, European Union markets, which were up 1 percent in value and 6.1 percent in volume, performed better than non-EU destinations.

Among EU partners, Germany stood out with a recovery, up 12.4 percent in value and up 15.8 percent in volume, while exports to France held steady at least in terms of pairs, up 1.3 percent, though they dropped 5.5 percent in value, remaining firmly the top destination. Several other key markets, including Spain, Poland, Belgium, and Austria, also recorded consolidations of varying degrees in both volume and value.

As for non-EU exports, which were down 6.5 percent in value and down 3.2 percent in volume, widespread declines affected all major Far East markets, down 23 percent, and several former Soviet bloc countries, including the two at war. Russia was down 14.4 percent in value, while Ukraine dipped 3.8 percent, and Kazakhstan was down 2.5 percent, which slowed after the significant expansion of recent years. By product type, leather-upper shoes showed a negative trend in both volume, down 2.7 percent, and value, down 7 percent.

Ceolini noted that the uncertainty of the impact of U.S. tariffs remains as the industry looks toward the end of the year.

“The real consequences on sales can only be quantified once autumn data is available,” Ceolini said. “The resilience shown by exports to the U.S. in April, up 1.9 percent in value, and May, up 1.8 percent, should be interpreted with caution, as the uncertainty and the possibility of even heavier tariffs being imposed may have led operators to speed up transactions with the additional 10 percent duty.”

The executive added that it is “too early to draw conclusions” regarding how tariffs will affect the Italian footwear industry for the rest of year.

“The measure – the establishment of tariffs, set at a 15 percent baseline by the EU agreement starting August 7 – was declared unlawful just days ago by a U.S. federal appeals court,” Ceolini said. “The Supreme Court is expected to rule in October, following the White House’s appeal. The tariffs could affect American customers’ purchasing decisions and directly impact exporters’ margins if companies decide to ‘absorb’ all or part of the new duty.”

Ceolini did stress, however, the importance of the U.S. for footwear exports – which was the second market in value, with nearly 1.4 billion euros in 2024.

Still, expectations for the second half of 2025 remain cautious. “The lack of significant new developments in the international economic and geopolitical landscape, along with the trade tensions triggered by U.S. tariffs, do not allow for easy optimism,” Ceolini added. “More than half of entrepreneurs surveyed, or 58 percent, expect to close the year with results lower than in 2024.”