Each week, fantasy football analyst Joel Smyth goes through the 10 players and situations. After two action-packed Sundays, how will the trends of fantasy football define Week 3?

Is Jordan Mason’s bellcow potential for real?

Jordan Mason demonstrated that this was not an RB1-RB2 situation in Minnesota, but a 1A-1B. Now that 1A is out of the picture and Mason is back in his bellcow role, let’s look back at that role in 2024. In his six complete games last season, Mason averaged 15.5 PPG as a member of the San Francisco 49ers. That was with next to nothing in receiving, a role that Mason has been rumored to see more action in with the Vikings. With a prominent receiving threat such as Aaron Jones Sr. available, Mason still saw a healthy amount of routes out of the backfield over the first couple of games.

Advertisement

The difference between Mason being a good RB2 in fantasy and a star RB1 will be the key, and the perfect place to showcase his ability will be at home versus the Bengals this weekend. Cincinnati ranks 30th in points allowed to fantasy RBs so far, with a large chunk of that production coming through the air. The Browns and Jaguars RBs have combined for 11 receptions, 111 receiving yards and a pair of touchdowns in this same matchup. Not to mention, the Bengals’ top rookie run defender, Shemar Stewart, is likely sidelined for this contest.

Mason should be started everywhere and has the chance to cement himself as a top option in this Minnesota offense going forward.​

Ashton Jeanty set to break out this week

​Look, I get it. We don’t want to be patient with a first-round fantasy pick. Hopefully, this week turns it around for the season. And I have one main reason it will.​

Advertisement

The main struggle has been the offensive line. Jeanty ranks last in the NFL in yards before contact per attempt. Over 75% of his yards are coming after contact as this new offense tries to gain traction. Their matchup should help get things going.

All offseason, Washington’s worry was its ability to stop the run, with most projecting it to be one of the worst in the NFL against the rush. Through two weeks, it’s paying off those projections as it ranks last in adjusted yards before contact — (im)perfectly matching Jeanty’s early-season struggles. The rookie RB has looked good, the raw numbers just wouldn’t suggest it, but in terms of missed tackles forced per attempt, he’s top-five in the NFL already. I believe this matchup can get the Raiders and their run game on the right track in this Chip Kelly run scheme.

Dallas at Chicago should be a party

​The combined score projection for this one is at 50.5 points. I’m hoping for 50-49 and all the fantasy points in the world. Your fantasy matchup could very well be decided by this game alone. Through two games and a world of injuries, Chicago is bottom-two in fantasy points allowed to QB, RB and WR. It’s honestly impressive how bad it is. Dallas is not that much better, ranking 30th vs. QB, 29th vs. WRs and 19th vs. RBs.

Advertisement

​The must-starts of Rome Odunze and CeeDee Lamb should be joined in nearly all leagues by Javonte Williams, D’Andre Swift, George Pickens, DJ Moore, Caleb Williams, Dak Prescott and Jake Ferguson on ceiling potential alone, in my humble opinion. The only fantasy assets I wouldn’t consider are the D/STs.​

Hope in Carson Wentz …

Two weeks in and Justin Jefferson is WR22 with T.J. Hockenson coming in as TE44. Our hopes now lie with Carson Wentz.

We are screwed. Or are we?

If there is one thing Kevin O’Connell has proven is he can do wonders with just about any quarterback. Kirk Cousins was a consistent fantasy QB1, Sam Darnold was a QB1 and Daniel Jones is excelling after a stint in Minnesota. Since O’Connell took over as head coach in 2022, the Vikings have the second-most receiving fantasy points in the NFL.

Advertisement

​Part of that is due to high volume along with the talent growth. Over that span, Minnesota also ranked fifth in passing attempts, with very little of that time coming with poor defensive play. Without McCarthy, I wouldn’t be shocked if Minnesota begins to sling it around closer to its old pace. In a great Week 3 matchup, I’d still start Jefferson with confidence.

… and Jake Browning …

The only team with more receiving fantasy points since 2022 is the Cincinnati Bengals (part of that coming with Jake Browning). Forget Week 3, Browning and Wentz control fantasy superstars for the next month or three. However, in the seven starts with Jake Browning, things weren’t all sunshine and rainbows in fantasy for the Bengals.

​Ja’Marr Chase’s fantasy points per route dropped by 15.6% with Browning in 2023. The pass volume is a little lower along with it. Chase wasn’t the WR1 overall back then we now know him to be, though. Cincinnati uses him differently and better now, and it showed flashes of getting him involved in easy ways with Browning last week, with multiple designed targets.

Advertisement

Chase’s overall WR1 hopes may be gone, but I believe he’ll be better than the weak numbers we saw in 2023.

… but what about Tee Higgins & Chase Brown?

​Tee Higgins, on the other hand, I am less confident in. His target share with Browning took a steep drop, from 22% to 15%. Joe Burrow is perfect for Higgins, while Browning is just okay. The downfield attack and touchdown upside he usually possesses will be severely lowered without being a WR who leads the NFL in end-zone targets per game.​

Chase Brown lands somewhere in the middle of Chase and Higgins. Although Joe Mixon averaged 18 fantasy PPG with Browning in 2023, I don’t have full confidence in Brown to repeat those numbers. A large majority of the success of Chase Brown came from leading the position in targets per game as a starter in 2024. The passing volume and offensive volume in general are bound to decline, hurting Brown’s receiving upside significantly. The positive comes in the running game evolution. Without Burrow, the Bengals move to less of a shotgun-based offense, allowing for more creativity in the run game. Overall, I’m projecting Brown to be a solid, volume-based RB2 in fantasy the rest of the way.

Advertisement

The Cardinals’ passing attack could take flight in Week 3

It’s been an up-and-down year for Marvin Harrison Jr. in 2025. Week 3 is the biggest test yet. Nobody has had an easier schedule to start off the season than Arizona. Going up 20-10 on the Saints in Week 1 and 27-3 on the Panthers in Week 2 has resulted in it ranking 26th in passing attempts. But this exact situation is why “Pass Rate Over Expected,” where situations are considered, was created.​

It’s where the Cardinals rank second; 26th in passing attempts, but second in pass rate over expectation. In what should be a much closer contest versus San Francisco in Week 3, do we see heavy passing volume from Kyler Murray? Harrison Jr. has been used differently so far compared to 2024, with a better, more diverse route tree and some progress early. His Week 3 production can be the No. 1 indicator for the rest of his season-long production.

Where’s the Christian McCaffrey love?

​I have seen a dangerously low amount of coverage on Christian McCaffrey. He was surprisingly healthy after an injury scare, then faded into the background. Well, that background character is first in RB volume by over 15% — just as good, if not better, volume compared to his past overall RB1 seasons. There hasn’t been a blow-up game yet, but I think that shot is in Week 3.

Advertisement

Arizona was 30th against running backs in 2024, and even with some offseason improvements, has given up solid production to Alvin Kamara and Chuba Hubbard.

McCaffrey’s last two games versus Arizona? Forty-two and 49 PPR points, respectively. Are we getting a third straight week-winning performance on Sunday?

​Drake London should thrive in Week 3

​Can Drake London’s volume finally pay off in Week 3? We’re two games in and London ranks 11th in total WR volume, but 42nd in scoring. Fifteen targets in Week 1 was incredible, followed by a mere 21 passing attempts in Game 2.

​London faces a familiar opponent on Sunday in the Carolina Panthers. With Michael Penix Jr. starting in the final game of 2024, Drake London had 18 targets, 10 receptions, 187 yards and two touchdowns versus Carolina. The missing factor … CB Jaycee Horn did not play. The star WR still put up good numbers versus Horn in Week 6 last year, posting nearly 20 fantasy points, but failed to bring in 50 receiving yards in his other four games against the talented corner throughout his career.​

Advertisement

If Penix can get to around his Week 18 volume from last year, it would equal another substantial volume day for his No. 1 WR. Even with Horn available, I’d expect closer to London’s overall WR2 production we saw with Penix last season in comparison to his WR42 production so far.

Where are the big plays for Nico Collins and Brian Thomas Jr.?

Two big-play WRs are looking for their first ceiling game in their divisional matchup Sunday. In their matchups last season, Brian Thomas Jr. and Nico Collins combined for 432 receiving yards and three touchdowns. They took advantage of the perfect storm, having two quarterbacks who love to throw deep against secondaries that give up the big play.

Jacksonville has allowed 16 20+ yard receiving TDs since Week 1 of last year, with Houston being the only team to allow more with 17. Thomas Jr. has still not allocated an explosive catch this season on three deep targets, but the opportunities should be there from a QB who ranked No. 2 last season with 16% of his attempts coming as deep balls.

Both wideouts are primed to turn one big play into one big fantasy day in Week 3.