PHOENIX — The Minnesota Lynx sat atop the standings throughout the 2025 season and were the heavy favorites to return to the WNBA Finals and play for their fifth title in franchise history. But heading into Sunday’s Game 4 (8 p.m. ET, ESPN) of their semifinal series against the Phoenix Mercury, they are on the brink of elimination after losing two straight games.

Phoenix’s 84-76 Game 3 victory Friday ended in chaos. At one end of the court, Lynx forward Napheesa Collier sat on the floor, grabbing her left ankle after she collided with Mercury guard Alyssa Thomas. On the other end, Minnesota coach Cheryl Reeve was pulled off the court by her staff with about 21 seconds to play after berating the officials for not calling a foul on Thomas.

In her postgame news conference, Reeve said assigning the three Game 3 officials to a playoff semifinal game was “malpractice” and that a change was needed at the league level regarding its referee hiring and selection process.

Though the Lynx have not updated Collier’s status, the WNBA on Saturday suspended Reeve for one game.

ESPN’s Kendra Andrews, Charlie Creme, Kevin Pelton and Michael Voepel look at what to expect Sunday from both teams, as well as the officiating, and what Collier’s uncertain status means for the rest of the WNBA playoffs.

Why haven’t the Lynx been as dominant in this series as they were in the regular season?

Voepel: It’s not unusual for teams that battled for a playoff spot until the end of the regular season to look sharper than teams that clinched early. The Lynx wrapped up the No. 1 seed and home-court advantage Aug. 30, 12 days before the end of the regular season. Minnesota had nothing to gain over its last five regular-season games. Reeve insisted the games still had meaning and the Lynx would not relax or get stagnant, but that’s easier said than done.

Still, if Minnesota rebounded Phoenix guard Sami Whitcomb’s airball with 8 seconds left in regulation in Game 2, the Lynx likely would have closed out that victory and been up 2-0 going into Phoenix. Instead, Minnesota lost in overtime, which dramatically changed the tenor of the series. Collier’s injury and the Lynx’s loss in Game 3 pushed the momentum even further in Phoenix’s favor.

Andrews: The Lynx have not looked like the team that dominated the regular season. After having the league’s best defense — a 97.5 defensive rating and allowing just 76.7 points per game — Minnesota has had the fourth-best defense through its first five games of the postseason, trailing the Mercury, New York Liberty and Atlanta Dream.

Minnesota has looked far more frantic offensively in the semifinals than it has all season. The Lynx look rushed at times, and if their first option is taken away, they scramble to find a different shot. Their regular-season composure has slipped, and Phoenix is exploiting it.

Pelton: ESPN’s Brian Windhorst likes to talk about margin for error, and I’d point to DiJonai Carrington’s absence as something that eroded the margin for Minnesota. Couple that with Karlie Samuelson’s injury in July, and the Lynx are missing two players who they thought would upgrade this year’s team.

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Mercury pull away to take a 2-1 series lead over the Lynx

Satou Sabally’s 23 points lead the Mercury past the Lynx in a 84-76 win.

What has Phoenix done to take control of this series?

Voepel: It’s key to remember that the Lynx never faced Phoenix with Thomas, Satou Sabally and Kahleah Copper all on court and in their four regular-season meetings. Reeve and the Lynx players said before this series that their 3-1 regular-season record against the Mercury didn’t guarantee Minnesota’s success in the series.

The Mercury excelled in the paint in the first half of Game 1, but the Lynx adjusted in the second half and won. In Game 2, Phoenix made 11 3-pointers after hitting just three in the first game, helping the Mercury even the series. Then, in Game 3, both teams made the same number of field goals (30) and 3-pointers (six), but the Mercury went 18-of-22 from the free throw line compared with 10-of-11 for the Lynx. That was the difference.

Pelton: To Voepel’s point, the Mercury have two of the three best players in this series by our rankings entering the playoffs, and Thomas has outplayed Collier thus far. Minnesota’s stronger continuity hasn’t overcome that differential in high-end talent.

Andrews: When the Mercury finally had their players at full strength with about a month left in the regular season, Sabally told ESPN she felt the team was playing at 80% of its capability. The Mercury hoped through that final stretch that they would build chemistry and pair it with the surprising depth they’ve gotten from their group of rookies to make a deep playoff run. We’re seeing that come to fruition.

Thomas’ facilitating has been clinical, and Sabally’s and Copper’s scoring have been high-level. The trio scored the Mercury’s final 29 points in Game 3, including all 21 in the fourth. Phoenix’s depth has also been a game-changer, such as Whitcomb’s tying shot at the end of regulation in Game 2. The Mercury knew they could reach this level once they were fully healthy. And dating to the Game 2 win in the first round against the Liberty, Phoenix’s confidence hasn’t been higher.

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Reeve ejected, Collier limps off on Mercury’s game-sealing sequence

Reeve ejected, Collier limps off on Mercury’s game-sealing sequence

Can Minnesota still win this series if Collier isn’t on the court or 100%?

Creme: The Lynx winning two games in a row with a healthy Collier wouldn’t be out of the question. But playoff series can turn on a few moments, and it appears this one has after Game 3.

Courtney Williams and Natisha Hiedeman played well in Game 2, with a combined 33 points, but that isn’t enough offense without Collier. Kayla McBride is capable of more, but everyone else on this roster is a role player.

Collier means too much to the Lynx for them to win without her. She’s not only one of the league’s top scorers and the centerpiece of their offense, but Collier is also one of the WNBA’s best defenders. How does a team that has already been outscored by 26 points in the paint in the series defend the interior without its anchor? The Lynx likely can’t. Coming back to win the series seems equally unlikely.

Voepel: I agree with Charlie. Yes, the Lynx won some big games during the regular season without Collier, who played in 33 of the 44 games. But with the Mercury at full strength and the heightened atmosphere of the playoffs, it would be hard for the Lynx to win two games if Collier can’t play.

Officiating has been criticized by coaches and players throughout the season. What’s your take on the issue?

Pelton: Everything in the WNBA has leveled up in the past five years, from facilities to travel to the talent on the court. The officiating frankly hasn’t kept pace. WNBA officiating will always suffer if the league’s best referees are promoted to the NBA. The WNBA benefits from the training the NBA provides, but it’s time to improve the pay to the point where getting to the NBA isn’t the goal. And we’re long overdue for a WNBA replay center to speed up those interminable stoppages.

Andrews: The real takeaway from Reeve’s comments after Game 3 is what’s important: When the officials haven’t set a precedent for how the game will be called, the game often gets out of control. We saw it in Game 3 in Phoenix — no technical was called on Bridget Carleton when she chest-bumped Sabally. And we saw it earlier in the year, when tempers flared during a game between Indiana and Connecticut.

Voepel: There are complaints about officiating in every sport. The growing popularity of the WNBA has brought a bigger spotlight to officiating: More people are watching, so more are complaining about it.

I’ve grown to loathe the term “physicality” because it seems to mean fouling as much as you can get away with before a foul is called. Yet, no one wants too many whistles (which disrupts the flow of the game) or too few (which can result in ugly basketball, at best, and injuries, at worst).

Also, people don’t see the same thing on the same play. That’s true of the Thomas-Collier contact. To me, it was a foul on Thomas. But others saw it as “incidental.” Ultimately, the only opinion that counts in any game is that of the officials.

Coaches and players usually say that they want consistency. But officials are human with different strengths and weaknesses, both individually and as a unit. The league has to do all it can to hire and adequately compensate the best officials it can get. But there also seems to be more demand for than supply of the very highest-level officials.

How will Game 4 be officiated? Which team benefits from a tighter whistle and why?

Creme: Coaches have called out physical play all season, but it hasn’t brought about much change in how games are officiated, so logic suggests not much will change Sunday.

But this is now about emotion, not logic. Reeve’s outburst made that apparent. Officials hear the noise. And though a new crew brings a new set of eyes and a new approach, the officials know that an already-highly scrutinized job will be even more under the microscope in Game 4. Expect more whistles, especially early. It’s natural to want to take more control over a situation that seems out of control. The result will be more calls.

Will Minnesota, the team perceived to have been most negatively impacted by Friday’s officiating, be the beneficiary of more whistles? Minnesota was last in the WNBA in points on free throws and second to last in free throw percentage. The Mercury have more players who aggressively attack the rim. They also attempted more free throws this season than Minnesota, although neither team was in the top half of free throw rate.

More calls might impact the Lynx rotation more. Without Carrington, they aren’t as deep.

Andrews: Expect more whistles early as the officials prove they can take — and keep — control of the game. Officials might intervene more quickly when emotions run high, such as during the back-and-forth between Williams and Copper in Game 3, Carleton’s chest bump on Sabally or the chatter between Thomas and Collier in Game 2.

The Lynx might benefit more mentally, but Phoenix has a lot of players who like to cut to the rim and play through (or draw) more contact, so it could go either way.

I’m also curious how this affects the energy in the arena. The fans inside PHX on Friday seemed to like the physicality. Knowing that it will be under a microscope Sunday, it could create a hostile environment, which could help the Mercury.