Australia captain Pat Cummins says it is “less likely than likely” that he will be fit for the Ashes series opener against England next month.

The fast bowler is recovering from lumbar bone stress in his lower back and has not played since July, although he has resumed running in training.

The 32-year-old faces a race to be fit for the first Test in Perth on November 21, but admits he may be prepared to gamble with his fitness given the significance of the series.

Cummins, who said he planned to resume bowling drills next week, told Cricket Australia’s official website: “You’d want at least probably a month in the nets.

“If you play a Test match, you want to make sure you’re right to bowl 20 overs in a day and you don’t have to really think about it.

“So four weeks is pretty tight, but I think somewhere around that mark. I’m running today and running kind of every second day, and each run is a little bit longer.

“[Then I] get into bowling prep next week. [It’s] probably a couple of weeks away before I’m actually putting on the spikes and bowling out on turf.

“With these things, it’s pretty hard to go from not bowling or doing anything at all to suddenly playing five Tests. So first steps are trying to give [me] a shot at being right, and then we’ll work it out.”

Cummins hints at calculated gamble to play in Ashes

According to Australian outlet, The Age, Cummins had a fresh scan earlier this month and was told that while the stress “hot spot” was healing, it has not yet cleared up enough for him to bowl.

Steve Smith will almost certainly be the stand-in replacement captain to face Ben Stokes’ side, with Scott Boland likely to take Cummins’ place in the bowling attack alongside Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood.

Cummins revealed that Australia’s reduced schedule at the start of 2026 meant he may gamble more than he would usually be prepared to with his fitness.

“Next year isn’t as busy as other years, there’s a T20 World Cup [in February-March] but the bulk of Test matches aren’t until later in the year,” he said.

“There’s a little bit of that aspect [taking more risk]. This is the big series in this next six to 12-month block, but you’ve got to weigh that up against taking stupid risks as well that might cost you in the long-term.”

Ashes series in Australia 2025-26🏏

All times UK and Ireland

• First Test: Friday November 21 – Tuesday November 25 (2.30am) – Optus Stadium, Perth
• Second Test (day/night): Thursday December 4 – Monday December 8 (4.30am) – The Gabba, Brisbane
• Third Test: Wednesday December 17 – Sunday December 21 (12am) – Adelaide Oval
• Fourth Test: Thursday December 25 – Monday December 29 (11.30pm) – Melbourne Cricket Ground
• Fifth Test: Sunday January 4 – Thursday January 8 (11.30pm) – Sydney Cricket Ground